There are countless 'handicapping services' in the business of providing people who have parlays. They will tout win rates much like many of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Of course, you will see that they refer to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On a number of these sites you may even have the privilege of dealing with some kind of royalty in the field of parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The fact is that exotic wagers keep sports books running a business. Next time you're in Vegas check out the discarded tickets you see spread everywhere. It's safe to assume that might be nearly all these losers are made up of such bets placed on both sports and racing. Of all the sucker bets open to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the truth that there is absolutely no reasonable expectation of any return on the investment.
Find out more on a standard straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Weighed against many table games this is actually a fairly high percentage. A great deal of table games and slots offer a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a couple of dice at the back wall.
Chance plays a role in everything the house has to offer. There are also steps that may be taken to decrease the edge in just about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful compared to the sports book. The edge on a straight wager can be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in a sport. However, a double digit house edge can't ever be overcome in the end.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can plainly see every parlay it is possible to possibly bet has a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages are more consistent with keno, and they are equally impossible to overcome in the end. There is no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking a small amount of money for large payouts. The games which are frequently played in the casino are slots that offer thousands and even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of these bettors is 'Go big, or go back home.' The casino is actually happy to oblige as millions of bettors go home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It is fair to assume that the largest number of losing bets that a book accepts are exotic wagers of equal to or double the home minimum. The reason being most bettors don't have a meaningful bankroll reserve for sports betting. Given that they don't believe they can make any real cash by placing $25-50 on several games weekly they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a significant loss by the end of the growing season. Meanwhile, if they only placed straight wagers at that same level they might limit their potential losses to a few units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they're keeping the size of their bets low they are not taking on a substantial risk. This analysis is flawed since it ignores several factors. Most of all, it is my experience that most bettors usually do not place just one parlay weekly. In football this means at the least 34 parlays are placed during the regular season. In baseball that number can easily exceed 100. With a low unit bet that is still a dangerous amount of wagers to put with this type of high house edge. For example, in case you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation should be to lose about $35 for each and every $100 you wager. As the amount of bets you place increases it really is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will most likely result in increasing your losses or erasing any profits you were able to make on straight wagers. In '09 2009, I had a client who broke even after increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He managed to do this by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. That is an expensive lesson to learn especially when you consider I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are likely to follow his lead and continue using parlays I've a few pointers that will help over time. First of all, the very best value of most parlays is clearly the three team parlay. The difference between your house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, but the payout is more than twice as much. Invest the a look at the graph you should understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or more. However, if you're going to make such an investment listed below are two useful tips:
If you are likely to bet a 4 or 5 5 team parlay, always ensure it is 6 or even 10. The difference between your house edge to include 1 or 2 2 more teams is within 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The house edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, but the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to at least one 1.
If you are likely to throw your money away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is approximately 10 points lower than all three of those bets and it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while attempting to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed must be kept in check in order to be successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. You can chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or you can minimize your contact with a few units while maintaining a reasonable expectation to increase your bankroll by 50%...The choice is yours.