"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that if your book offers "if/reverses," you can play those instead of parlays. Some of you might not discover how to bet an "if/reverse." A complete explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, along with the situations in which each is best..
An "if" bet is strictly what it appears like. You bet Team A and IF it wins then you place the same amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at differing times is a kind of "if" bet where you bet on the first team, and if it wins you bet double on the next team. With a genuine "if" bet, rather than betting double on the second team, you bet an equal amount on the next team.
You can avoid two calls to the bookmaker and lock in the existing line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you would like to make an "if" bet. "If" bets may also be made on two games kicking off simultaneously. The bookmaker will wait before first game has ended. If the first game wins, he will put an equal amount on the next game even though it was already played.
Although an "if" bet is actually two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that so long as want the second bet. Once you make an "if" bet, the next bet can't be cancelled, even if the second game has not gone off yet. If the initial game wins, you should have action on the next game. Because of this, there is less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games without a doubt overlap in time, however, the only method to bet one only if another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Needless to say, when two games overlap in time, cancellation of the next game bet isn't an issue. It ought to be noted, that when both games start at differing times, most books will not allow you to complete the second game later. You must designate both teams when you make the bet.
You may make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I wish to make an 'if' bet," and, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction would be the same as betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and, only when Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the initial team in the "if" bet loses, there is no bet on the next team. Whether or not the second team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet will be $110 once you lose on the initial team. If the initial team wins, however, you'll have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the second team. If so, if the second team loses, your total loss will be just the $10 of vig on the split of both teams. If both games win, you would win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the utmost loss on an "if" would be $110, and the maximum win would be $200. That is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the entire $110, instead of just $10 of vig, each time the teams split with the first team in the bet losing.
As you can see, it matters a good deal which game you put first in an "if" bet. In the event that you put the loser first in a split, you then lose your full bet. If you split but the loser may be the second team in the bet, then you only lose the vig.
Bettors soon found that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty caused by the order of wins and loses is to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Rather than betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you would bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and then make a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The next bet would put Team B first and Team A second. This sort of double bet, reversing the order of exactly the same two teams, is called an "if/reverse" or sometimes just a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't have to state both bets. You merely tell the clerk you want to bet a "reverse," the two teams, and the amount.
If both teams win, the effect would be the same as if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the initial "if bet, and $50 on Team B, for a complete win of $100. In the second "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and then $50 on Team A, for a complete win of $100. Both "if" bets together create a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the result would also function as same as if you played a single "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would cost you $55 in the initial "if" combination, and nothing would go onto Team B. In the next combination, Team B's loss would cost you $55 and nothing would go onto to Team A. You would lose $55 on each one of the bets for a total maximum loss of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs once the teams split. Instead of losing $110 once the first team loses and the next wins, and $10 once the first team wins but the second loses, in the reverse you will lose $60 on a split no matter which team wins and which loses. It works out in this manner. If Team A loses you'll lose $55 on the initial combination, and also have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the next combination, you'll win $50 on Team B, and have action on Team A for a $55 loss, resulting in a net loss on the second mix of $5 vig. The increased loss of $55 on the initial "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet gives you a combined lack of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you will lose the $5 vig on the first combination and the $55 on the next combination for exactly the same $60 on the split..
We've accomplished this smaller lack of $60 rather than $110 when the first team loses with no reduction in the win when both teams win. In both the single $110 "if" bet and both reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers could not put themselves at that sort of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the excess $50 loss ($60 rather than $10) whenever Team B may be the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us any money, but it has the benefit of making the risk more predictable, and avoiding the worry concerning which team to place first in the "if" bet.
(What follows can be an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations give you a headache, skip them and write down the rules. I'll summarize the guidelines in an easy to copy list in my own next article.)
As with parlays, the overall rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, when you can win a lot more than 52.5% or even more of your games. If you cannot consistently achieve a winning percentage, however, making "if" bets whenever you bet two teams can save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds some luck to your betting equation that doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, then they should both be bet. Betting using one should not be made dependent on whether you win another. However, for the bettor who includes a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the second team whenever the first team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the fact that he is not betting the next game when both lose. When compared to straight bettor, the "if" bettor comes with an additional cost of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, anything that keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets decrease the number of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is exactly opposite. Whatever keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and for that reason "if" bets will cost the winning handicapper money. When the winning bettor plays fewer games, he has fewer winners. Remember that next time someone lets you know that the best way to win is to bet fewer games. A smart winner never wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" work out a similar as "if" bets, they both place the winner at the same disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - Whenever a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
As with all rules, there are exceptions. "If" bets and parlays ought to be made by a winner with a confident expectation in only two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or perhaps a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I could think of that you have no other choice is if you're the very best man at your friend's wedding, you are waiting to walk down the aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of your tux and that means you left it in the automobile, you merely bet offshore in a deposit account with no credit line, the book has a $50 minimum phone bet, you like two games which overlap with time, you grab your trusty cell 5 minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you must walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your own arm, you try to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you only have $75 in your account.
As the old philosopher used to say, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If that's the case, hold your mind up high, put a smile on your face, look for the silver lining, and make a $50 "if" bet on your two teams. Needless to say you could bet a parlay, but as you will see below, the "if/reverse" is a great replacement for the parlay should you be winner.
For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. Regarding co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, you will find a huge advantage to betting combinations. With Check over here , the bettor gets the benefit of increased parlay probability of 13-5 on combined bets that have greater than the normal expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets should always be contained within exactly the same game, they must be produced as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage comes from the point that we make the second bet only IF among the propositions wins.
It could do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favorite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We'd simply lose the vig regardless of how usually the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favourite and over and the underdog and under, we can net a $160 win when one of our combinations will come in. When to choose the parlay or the "reverse" when making co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Predicated on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when among our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay without the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win will be $180 every time among our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse without the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
When a split occurs and the under comes in with the favorite, or higher will come in with the underdog, the parlay will lose $110 as the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" has a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay has a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay would be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we are not in a 50-50 situation. If the favorite covers the high spread, it really is much more likely that the game will review the comparatively low total, and if the favorite does not cover the high spread, it really is more likely that the overall game will beneath the total. As we have previously seen, once you have a confident expectation the "if/reverse" is really a superior bet to the parlay. The specific probability of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends on how close the lines privately and total are to one another, but the fact that they are co-dependent gives us a confident expectation.
The point where the "if/reverse" becomes a better bet compared to the parlay when coming up with our two co-dependent is a 72% win-rate. This is not as outrageous a win-rate as it sounds. When coming up with two combinations, you have two chances to win. You only need to win one out of your two. Each one of the combinations comes with an independent positive expectation. If we assume the chance of either the favourite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or the other must win) then all we need is a 72% probability that whenever, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the game will go over the full total 53 � at least 72% of the time as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we have been only � point from a win. A BC cover will result in an over 72% of that time period isn't an unreasonable assumption beneath the circumstances.
When compared with a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win an extra $4 seventy-two times, for a complete increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" may cause us to lose a supplementary $10 the 28 times that the outcomes split for a complete increased lack of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."