"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that if your book offers "if/reverses," it is possible to play those instead of parlays. Some of you may not discover how to bet an "if/reverse." A complete explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, along with the situations where each is best..
An "if" bet is strictly what it appears like. Without a doubt Team A and IF it wins you then place an equal amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at different times is a kind of "if" bet where you bet on the first team, and when it wins without a doubt double on the next team. With a genuine "if" bet, instead of betting double on the next team, you bet the same amount on the next team.
It is possible to avoid two calls to the bookmaker and lock in the existing line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you want to make an "if" bet. "If" bets may also be made on two games kicking off as well. The bookmaker will wait before first game is over. If the first game wins, he will put the same amount on the second game even though it was already played.
Although an "if" bet is in fact two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that so long as want the next bet. Once you make an "if" bet, the next bet cannot be cancelled, even if the next game have not gone off yet. If the initial game wins, you will have action on the next game. Because of this, there's less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games without a doubt overlap in time, however, the only method to bet one only if another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Needless to say, when two games overlap with time, cancellation of the next game bet isn't an issue. It ought to be noted, that when both games start at different times, most books won't allow you to fill in the next game later. You need to designate both teams once you make the bet.
You possibly can make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I wish to make an 'if' bet," and then, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction will be the identical to betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and then, only when Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the initial team in the "if" bet loses, there is absolutely no bet on the next team. Whether or not the next team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet would be $110 when you lose on the initial team. If the initial team wins, however, you would have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the second team. If so, if the next team loses, your total loss would be just the $10 of vig on the split of the two teams. If both games win, you'll win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the utmost loss on an "if" would be $110, and the maximum win will be $200. This is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the full $110, instead of just $10 of vig, each time the teams split with the first team in the bet losing.
As you can plainly see, it matters a good deal which game you put first in an "if" bet. If you put the loser first in a split, then you lose your full bet. If you split however the loser may be the second team in the bet, then you only lose the vig.
Bettors soon found that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty caused by the order of wins and loses is to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Instead of betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you'll bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and then make a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The second bet would put Team B first and Team Another. This type of double bet, reversing the order of exactly the same two teams, is named an "if/reverse" or sometimes just a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't have to state both bets. You merely tell the clerk you intend to bet a "reverse," the two teams, and the amount.
If both teams win, the result would be the identical to if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the initial "if bet, and $50 on Team B, for a complete win of $100. In the next "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and $50 on Team A, for a total win of $100. The two "if" bets together create a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the effect would also be the same as if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would set you back $55 in the initial "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the next combination, Team B's loss would set you back $55 and nothing would look at to Team A. You'll lose $55 on each one of the bets for a complete maximum loss of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs when the teams split. Rather than losing $110 when the first team loses and the next wins, and $10 when the first team wins however the second loses, in the reverse you will lose $60 on a split no matter which team wins and which loses. It computes this way. If Team A loses you'll lose $55 on the initial combination, and also have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the second combination, you will win $50 on Team B, and have action on Team A for a $55 loss, producing a net loss on the next combination of $5 vig. The increased loss of $55 on the initial "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet offers you a combined loss of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you'll lose the $5 vig on the initial combination and the $55 on the next combination for the same $60 on the split..
We have accomplished this smaller lack of $60 instead of $110 when the first team loses without reduction in the win when both teams win. In both the single $110 "if" bet and both reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers could not put themselves at that sort of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the extra $50 loss ($60 instead of $10) whenever Team B may be the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us hardly any money, but it does have the advantage of making the chance more predictable, and avoiding the worry as to which team to put first in the "if" bet.
(What follows can be an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations offer you a headache, skip them and simply write down the rules. bongbet 'll summarize the rules in an an easy task to copy list in my next article.)
As with parlays, the general rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, when you can win a lot more than 52.5% or more of your games. If you cannot consistently achieve an absolute percentage, however, making "if" bets once you bet two teams can save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds some luck to your betting equation that doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, then they should both be bet. Betting using one shouldn't be made dependent on whether or not you win another. However, for the bettor who includes a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the next team whenever the first team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the truth that he is not betting the next game when both lose. When compared to straight bettor, the "if" bettor comes with an additional expense of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, anything that keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets decrease the amount of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is strictly opposite. Anything that keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and therefore "if" bets will definitely cost the winning handicapper money. When the winning bettor plays fewer games, he's got fewer winners. Understand that next time someone lets you know that the way to win would be to bet fewer games. A good winner never wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" work out a similar as "if" bets, they both place the winner at the same disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - Whenever a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
Much like all rules, you can find exceptions. "If" bets and parlays ought to be made by a winner with a positive expectation in only two circumstances::
If you find no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or perhaps a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I could think of that you have no other choice is if you are the very best man at your friend's wedding, you are waiting to walk down that aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of one's tux which means you left it in the automobile, you only bet offshore in a deposit account with no credit line, the book has a $50 minimum phone bet, you like two games which overlap with time, you grab your trusty cell five minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you need to walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your own arm, you try to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you merely have $75 in your account.
Because the old philosopher used to state, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If so, hold your head up high, put a smile on your own face, look for the silver lining, and create a $50 "if" bet on your two teams. Of course you can bet a parlay, but as you will see below, the "if/reverse" is a superb replacement for the parlay if you are winner.
For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. In the case of co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, you will find a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor gets the advantage of increased parlay odds of 13-5 on combined bets that have greater than the normal expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets should always be contained within exactly the same game, they must be produced as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage comes from the point that we make the second bet only IF one of the propositions wins.
It would do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favorite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We'd simply lose the vig no matter how usually the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favorite and over and the underdog and under, we are able to net a $160 win when among our combinations will come in. When to find the parlay or the "reverse" when making co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Based on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when one of our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay minus the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win would be $180 every time among our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse without the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
When a split occurs and the under will come in with the favorite, or higher comes in with the underdog, the parlay will eventually lose $110 while the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" has a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay has a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay would be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we have been not in a 50-50 situation. If the favourite covers the high spread, it really is more likely that the overall game will review the comparatively low total, and if the favorite does not cover the high spread, it really is more likely that the game will beneath the total. As we have already seen, once you have a positive expectation the "if/reverse" is a superior bet to the parlay. The specific possibility of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends upon how close the lines on the side and total are to one another, but the fact that they are co-dependent gives us a positive expectation.
The point where the "if/reverse" becomes a better bet than the parlay when making our two co-dependent is really a 72% win-rate. This is simply not as outrageous a win-rate as it sounds. When coming up with two combinations, you have two chances to win. You merely have to win one out of your two. Each one of the combinations comes with an independent positive expectation. If we assume the opportunity of either the favourite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or the other must win) then all we need is a 72% probability that when, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the game will go over the full total 53 � at least 72% of that time period as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we are only � point away from a win. A BC cover can lead to an over 72% of that time period isn't an unreasonable assumption under the circumstances.
Compared to a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win a supplementary $4 seventy-two times, for a total increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" will cause us to lose a supplementary $10 the 28 times that the results split for a complete increased lack of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."