"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that when your book offers "if/reverses," you can play those instead of parlays. Some of you may not learn how to bet an "if/reverse." A full explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, combined with the situations where each is best..
An "if" bet is strictly what it sounds like. You bet Team A and IF it wins you then place the same amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at different times is a kind of "if" bet in which you bet on the initial team, and when it wins you bet double on the next team. With a genuine "if" bet, rather than betting double on the second team, you bet an equal amount on the second team.
It is possible to avoid two calls to the bookmaker and lock in the current line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you want to make an "if" bet. "If" bets may also be made on two games kicking off at the same time. The bookmaker will wait before first game has ended. If the first game wins, he will put the same amount on the second game even though it has already been played.
Although an "if" bet is actually two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that so long as want the next bet. As soon as you make an "if" bet, the second bet cannot be cancelled, even if the next game have not gone off yet. If the initial game wins, you should have action on the second game. For that reason, there's less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. Once the two games you bet overlap with time, however, the only way to bet one only when another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Of course, when two games overlap in time, cancellation of the second game bet isn't an issue. It should be noted, that when the two games start at differing times, most books will not allow you to complete the next game later. You must designate both teams when you make the bet.
You can make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I want to make an 'if' bet," and, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction would be the same as betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and, only when Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the initial team in the "if" bet loses, there is no bet on the next team. Whether or not the next team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet will be $110 when you lose on the first team. If the first team wins, however, you'll have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the second team. In that case, if the next team loses, your total loss would be just the $10 of vig on the split of both teams. If both games win, you'll win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the utmost loss on an "if" would be $110, and the utmost win would be $200. This is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the entire $110, instead of just $10 of vig, every time the teams split with the initial team in the bet losing.
As you can see, it matters a great deal which game you put first in an "if" bet. In the event that you put the loser first in a split, then you lose your full bet. In the event that you split but the loser may be the second team in the bet, then you only lose the vig.
Bettors soon found that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty caused by the order of wins and loses is to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Instead of betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you'll bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and make a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The second bet would put Team B first and Team A second. This sort of double bet, reversing the order of the same two teams, is called an "if/reverse" or sometimes just a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't need to state both bets. You only tell the clerk you wish to bet a "reverse," the two teams, and the amount.
If both teams win, the effect would be the identical to if you played a single "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the first "if bet, and then $50 on Team B, for a complete win of $100. In the second "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and $50 on Team A, for a total win of $100. The two "if" bets together result in a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the effect would also be the same as in the event that you played a single "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would cost you $55 in the initial "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the second combination, Team B's loss would cost you $55 and nothing would go onto to Team A. You'll lose $55 on each of the bets for a complete maximum loss of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs when the teams split. Rather than losing $110 when the first team loses and the second wins, and $10 when the first team wins however the second loses, in the reverse you'll lose $60 on a split no matter which team wins and which loses. It works out this way. If Team A loses you'll lose $55 on the initial combination, and also have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the next combination, you will win $50 on Team B, and have action on Team A for a $55 loss, producing a net loss on the next mix of $5 vig. The increased loss of $55 on the first "if" bet and $5 on the second "if" bet offers you a combined loss of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you will lose the $5 vig on the first combination and the $55 on the next combination for exactly the same $60 on the split..
We have accomplished this smaller lack of $60 instead of $110 once the first team loses without decrease in the win when both teams win. In both the single $110 "if" bet and the two reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers could not put themselves at that type of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the extra $50 loss ($60 rather than $10) whenever Team B may be the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us any money, but it has the benefit of making the risk more predictable, and avoiding the worry concerning which team to place first in the "if" bet.
(What follows can be an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations offer you a headache, skip them and simply write down the rules. I'll summarize the guidelines in an an easy task to copy list in my own next article.)
As with parlays, the general rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, when you can win a lot more than 52.5% or even more of your games. If you fail to consistently achieve a winning percentage, however, making "if" bets whenever you bet two teams will save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds an element of luck to your betting equation it doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, they should both be bet. Betting using one shouldn't be made dependent on whether you win another. Alternatively, for the bettor who includes a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the second team whenever the initial team loses. By preventing https://suncityy.mobi/ , the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the fact that he is not betting the next game when both lose. Compared to the straight bettor, the "if" bettor comes with an additional expense of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, whatever keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets decrease the amount of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is strictly opposite. Whatever keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and for that reason "if" bets will cost the winning handicapper money. When the winning bettor plays fewer games, he has fewer winners. Understand that next time someone lets you know that the best way to win would be to bet fewer games. A good winner never really wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" work out a similar as "if" bets, they both place the winner at an equal disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - Whenever a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
Much like all rules, you can find exceptions. "If" bets and parlays ought to be made by successful with a positive expectation in only two circumstances::
If you find no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I could think of you have no other choice is if you are the very best man at your friend's wedding, you are waiting to walk down the aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of your tux which means you left it in the car, you only bet offshore in a deposit account without credit line, the book includes a $50 minimum phone bet, you prefer two games which overlap in time, you grab your trusty cell five minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you must walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your own arm, you try to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you merely have $75 in your account.
As the old philosopher used to state, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If that's the case, hold your mind up high, put a smile on your own face, search for the silver lining, and create a $50 "if" bet on your two teams. Of course you could bet a parlay, but as you will notice below, the "if/reverse" is a wonderful replacement for the parlay in case you are winner.
For the winner, the best method is straight betting. In the case of co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, there exists a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor gets the advantage of increased parlay odds of 13-5 on combined bets that have greater than the standard expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets should always be contained within the same game, they must be made as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage comes from the fact that we make the next bet only IF one of many propositions wins.
It would do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favourite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We would simply lose the vig no matter how usually the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favourite and over and the underdog and under, we are able to net a $160 win when one of our combinations comes in. When to find the parlay or the "reverse" when making co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Predicated on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the intended purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when one of our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay minus the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win will be $180 every time one of our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse minus the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
When a split occurs and the under comes in with the favorite, or higher will come in with the underdog, the parlay will eventually lose $110 while the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" has a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay includes a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay would be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we have been not in a 50-50 situation. If the favorite covers the high spread, it really is much more likely that the game will review the comparatively low total, and if the favorite fails to cover the high spread, it is more likely that the game will under the total. As we have already seen, once you have a positive expectation the "if/reverse" is a superior bet to the parlay. The actual possibility of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends upon how close the lines on the side and total are to one another, but the proven fact that they are co-dependent gives us a confident expectation.
The point where the "if/reverse" becomes a better bet compared to the parlay when coming up with our two co-dependent is a 72% win-rate. This is not as outrageous a win-rate as it sounds. When making two combinations, you have two chances to win. You merely need to win one from the two. Each of the combinations has an independent positive expectation. If we assume the chance of either the favourite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or another must win) then all we are in need of is really a 72% probability that when, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the overall game will go over the total 53 � at least 72% of that time period as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we have been only � point from a win. A BC cover will result in an over 72% of that time period isn't an unreasonable assumption beneath the circumstances.
As compared to a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win an extra $4 seventy-two times, for a total increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" will cause us to lose a supplementary $10 the 28 times that the outcomes split for a complete increased lack of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."